Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- January 7, 2016

Mark Thompson, Time: North Korea’s Steady Quest for a Bigger Mushroom Cloud

North Korea’s purported H-bomb test Wednesday makes clear the cost-benefit analysis of dealing with what President George W. Bush called the “axis of evil” shortly after the 9/11 terror attacks. That was his shorthand way of describing North Korea, Iraq and Iran in his 2002 State of the Union address. Since then, the U.S. and many of its allies have dealt with the three so-called “rogue nations” in three very different ways.

When Bush first declared the axis of evil on Jan. 29, 2002, he focused on Iraq. Fourteen months later, the U.S. invaded Saddam Hussein’s country, a war that killed 4,495 U.S. troops, cost more than $1 trillion, and served as a trigger for regional turmoil and a catalyst for the rise of ISIS. That’s the bad news. The good news: Iraq’s nuclear program is as dead as Saddam, executed in 2006.

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- January 7, 2016

Analysts: Broad Response Needed to N. Korea Test - Pamela Dockins, VOA

Analysis: Sanctions may not affect defiant N. Korea -- Kirk Spitzer, USA TODAY

Kim Jong-un’s Generational Ambitions -- Jean H. Lee, NYT

Nuclear tests, purges mark four years of Kim's North Korea rule -- Jack Kim, Reuters

Rupture with Iran may not have been Saudi aim, but Riyadh has no regrets -- Angus McDowall, Reuters

What’s the Saudi-Iran Feud Really About? -- Uri Friedman, The Atlantic

Can ISIS Gain a Foothold in Balochistan? -- Muhammad Akbar Notezai, The Diplomat

Raid on Air Force Base Reveals India's Dysfunction -- John Elliott, Newsweek

Libya's Peace Efforts in Tatters After Deadliest Bomb Kills 50 -- Ghaith Shennib & Caroline Alexander, Bloomberg

This is How the West Tried to Persuade Gaddafi to Give Up Power -- Eliza Gray, Time

The Danger of a Weak Europe -- Joseph S. Nye, Project Syndicate

For Greece, 2016 Brings New Challenges -- Stratfor

Chavismo Is More Dangerous in Defeat -- Michael Inganamort, The Compass

Why El Salvador Became Hemisphere's Murder Capital -- Partlow, Washington Post

The US world order is a suit that no longer fits -- Fu Ying, Financial Times

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- January 6, 2016

Japan Meteorological Agency's earthquake and tsunami observations division director Yohei Hasegawa points at a graph of ground motion waveform data observed in Japan during a news conference at the Japan Meteorological Agency in Tokyo. REUTERS/ISSEI KATO

Jack Kim and Fraincois Murphy, Reuters: Verifying North Korea hydrogen bomb claim may prove difficult

In the days and weeks ahead, nuclear experts will be hunting for airborne radioactive particles that could shed light on North Korea's assertion that it tested a hydrogen bomb, but drawing an independent conclusion could prove lengthy and difficult.

Seismic monitoring stations operated by governments around the world detected an earthquake on Wednesday morning that the U.S. Geological Survey measured at a magnitude of 5.1.

The location of the quake, near a known North Korean nuclear test site, and its seismic characteristics led experts to quickly conclude that North Korea had probably conducted a fourth nuclear test. Pyongyang then announced it had done so.

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- January 6, 2016

North Korea's Nuclear Mistake -- Bloomberg editorial

Why North Korea can't be dismissed as a wannabe nuclear power -- Peter Grier, CSM

How Will China Respond to North Korea's Nuclear Test? -- Shannon Tiezzi, The Diplomat

Iraq’s fight with Islamic State is just getting started -- New Europe

Pentagon's lesson learned from Ramadi: patience -- Anna Mulrine, CSM

Combating the ISIS Foreign Fighter Pipeline: A Global Approach -- Heritage Foundation

The Death Knell of Iraq’s Christian Community -- Rudaw

Why the Saudi-Iranian Cold War Is Heating Up -- Juan Cole, The Nation

Blame Pakistani Spy Service for Attack on Indian Air Force Base -- Bruce Riedel, Daily Beast

Pivotal Moment: The Obama Administration’s “pivot” to Asia was supposed to be a transformative shift. Why has it led to such underwhelming results? -- Joshua Kurlantzick, Democracy Journal

What U.S. Policy Gets Wrong About China -- John Hemmings, National Journal

Here's Why Japan and Russia Might Sign a Peace Treaty — 70 Years After the War -- Ryan Faith, VICE

Why The New Sweden-Denmark Border Will Make The Refugee Crisis Worse -- Zoe Gardner, Newsweek

2016 - The final countdown for the European Union -- Oliver Schmidt, The European

How Drought and Extreme Heat Are Killing the World’s Crops -- Justin Worland, Time

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- January 5, 2015

Supporters of Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr protest against the execution of Shi'ite Muslim cleric Nimr al-Nimr in Saudi Arabia, during a demonstration in Najaf, Iraq January 4, 2016. REUTERS/ALAA AL-MARJANI

Angus McDowall, Reuters: New Saudi-Iran crisis threatens wider escalation

The last time Saudi Arabia broke off ties with Iran, after its embassy in Tehran was stormed by protesters in 1988, it took a swing in the regional power balance in the form of Saddam Hussein's 1990 invasion of Kuwait to heal the rift.

It is hard to see how any lesser development could resolve the region's most bitter rivalry, which has underpinned wars and political tussles across the Middle East as Riyadh and Tehran backed opposing sides.

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- January 5, 2015

The Saudi-Iranian Eruption -- Michael Totten, World Affairs

Did the Saudis Start This Mideast Crisis on Purpose? -- Shane Harris, Daily Beast

Sunni Arab Solidarity: Bahrain and the U.A.E. join Saudi Arabia in ignoring a U.S. they don’t trust. -- WSJ Editorial

Obama’s Middle East Balancing Act Tilts Toward Iran -- Josh Rogin & Eli Lake, Bloomberg

Why ISIS is the winner in Saudi Arabia-Iran row -- Holly Ellyatt, CNBC

U.S. Can Afford to Side With Iran Over Saudis -- Noah Feldman, Bloomberg

Iran-Saudi tensions show why it's so hard for US to disentangle from Mideast -- Howard Lafranchi, CSM

Turkey’s unwinnable war against the Kurds -- Asli Aydintasbas, Politico

China’s stockmarket crashes—again -- The Economist

Was the death of Kim Jong Un's number two really an accident? -- Bruce Klingner, Newsweek

Pathankot terror attack is exactly why India should talk to Pakistan -- Shivam Vij, Quartz

Are the Terrorists Winning a Year After Charlie Hebdo? -- Christopher Dickey, Daily Beast

Sexual assaults blamed on ‘Arab’ men in Germany may inflame refugee debate -- Niraj Chokshi, Washington Post
Sexual Assaults in Germany and the Debate Over Refugees -- Krishnadev Calamur, Atlantic

Turkey, NATO, and risk of nuclear escalation with Russia -- Christina Lin, Asia Times

Candidates for president flesh out their anti-IS war plans -- Julian Pecquet, Al-Monitor

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- January 4, 2015

Secretary of State John Kerry spoke with Saudi King Salman in October. PHOTO: CARLO ALLEGRI/PRESS POOL

Jay Solomon, WSJ: Obama’s Mideast Plan Faces a New Hurdle

U.S. officials concerned that Iran-Saudi conflict could undermine broader efforts in Middle East

WASHINGTON—The sudden upheaval that shattered ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia over the weekend also saddled the Obama administration with unexpected complications in what already was a long-shot bid to ease the crises of the Middle East.

Administration officials voiced rising concern that the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia could undermine their broader regional efforts—in particular ending the Syrian civil war.

Secretary of State John Kerry had been pressing Tehran and Riyadh for months to establish a direct diplomatic channel to address the Syria conflict.

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- January 4, 2015

Iran hard-liners see Saudi Embassy attack as a win-win. Are they wrong? -- Scott Peterson, CSM

Why Iran is Pressing Its Luck -- Max Boot, Commentary

Saudi executions signal royal worries -- Bruce Reidel, Al-Monitor

The Quiet Crisis in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia -- Karl Vick, Time

Tehran and Riyadh are two murderous theocracies -- Kersten Knipp, DW

Sunnis and Shiites: Islam's ancient divide -- AFP

Saudi Arabia’s Barbaric Executions -- New York Times editorial

As Saudi Arabia severs ties with Iran, questions loom in volatile region -- Catherine E. Shoichet, CNN

The ‘marriage of convenience’ between Saddam Hussein’s men and Islamic State -- Mohamad Bazzi, Reuters

Taliban Surged in 2015, but ISIS is Moving in on Its Turf -- Foreign Policy

Deterring Chinese Aggression -- Nathan Jennings, Small Wars Journal

Africa's Boom Is Over -- Rick Rowden, Foreign Policy

A British exit could be just the start of Europe’s unraveling in 2016 -- Griff Witte, Washington Post

Khodorkovsky: From Russian Multi-Billionaire to ‘Murderer’? -- Anna Nemtsova, Daily Beast

Czarist echo? Russian Orthodox Church drives to restore its political clout -- Fred Weir, CSM

Putin Makes His Isolationism Official -- Leonid Bershidsky, Bloomberg

5 Expert Predictions for the Global Economy in 2016 -- James McBride, The Atlantic